Super Bowl 2018 Odds: AI Predicts Who Wins Patriots vs Eagles
It all comes down to this.
The New England Patriots are looking to win their sixth Super Bowl, tying the NFL record. The Philadelphia Eagles are just looking to win their first. A hive mind of about 50 NFL fans predicts who wins it all Sunday.
Before we get to the prediction, let’s consider the situation. The Patriots have, give or take an occasionally shaky defense, looked very much like the normal planet-destroyers we have grown accustomed to since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady began their incredible run of success together in 2001. With star tight end Rob Gronkowski out of the concussion protocol and ready to play, the Patriots figure to be all systems go.
The Eagles aren’t so lucky, as star quarterback and MVP candidate Carson Wentz remains very much lost for the season. Backup Nick Foles has had moments of brilliance and moments of utter awfulness, so it’s hard to say which way this will go. He had the best game of the season two weeks ago in the NFC Championship, but it’s all very much a coin flip as to which Foles will show up.
Let’s see what the hive mind, or swarm, of football fans predicts will happen.
The swarm theoretically picked the Patriots to win with high confidence, but the percentage of people pulling toward that outcome — the brainpower — is very low at 67 percent. A lot of the dissent is still behind the Patriots, just with low confidence, but there is a contingent that sees an Eagles victory. Overall, consider this a likely Patriots victory, but it’s not a stone-cold lock.
To predict the result of this and other games, Unanimous A.I. used what’s known as swarm intelligence to forecast the week’s slate. About 30 NFL fans worked together as a hive mind to make picks. As you can see in the animation below, each participant controlled a little golden magnet and used it to drag the puck toward the answer they thought was the most likely outcome. As the users saw the puck move toward a particular outcome, it triggers a psychological response. They readjust their decision-making, building toward a consensus. Here’s Unanimous A.I. founder Louis Rosenberg explaining swarm intelligence at a recent TEDx Talk.
Unanimous A.I. has made some scarily accurate predictions in the past using swarm intelligence, as our previous article explains.
The Super Bowl kicks off at 6:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.
